Mlb 2020

[Spencer 555]

Hahaha well I'll have to get hulky in on that stuff because I can only do numbers

[Spencer 555]

And for the record, I figured you weren't being serious about the salaries and stuff, but it was something I thought about going into this project so I figured I'll just throw in my rough guesses.

[Spencer 555]

At C: Gary Sanchez might be a bit overrated offensively, but dude can hit for a catcher and he's underrated defensively. Might be the best catcher in the AL at this point. Player Salary: 10-15mill arb2 or bridge.

1b: Greg Bird. Very talented young hitter, I see bird as an above average player in 2020. Think Brandon Belt. He may need a platoon partner here to hit lefties, but those are easy to find. Player salary: 8-13 Mill arb2 or bridge

2b: Starlin Castro. At this point he should be on the downturn in his career, but to me, Castro is a guy who can still refine his approach and is still improving offensively. Initially a ss, Castro is a good 2b defensively. Amazing he will be 30 in 2020. Player Salary: 16mill team option

Ss: Gleyber Torres. Perhaps the cubs biggest mistake in the process of winning a championship was trading future all star Gleyber Torres. I think Torres makes his full season debut as the Yankees future ss in 2020 after impressing with a cup of coffee in 2019. Player Salary: 500k pre arb.

3b: Manny Machado. I really think it's inevitable that the Yankees get Machado. Baltimore is a trash organization run by an idiot and I've never thought Machado ever cared much for the team. Arod's protege moves to the Yankees and reaches another level as the star of the show. Manny wins the AL mvp in 2020 over trout for some reason (Trout should win it every year lol). Player Salary: 30-35 mill per year.

DH: see sp1.... probably Ellsbury a bit too.

LF: Ellsbury unfortunately still remains on the team. He sucks up 22mill per year as a bench bat while he watches Clint Frazier spend the majority of his time starting in left over him. Frazier struggles to hit at the big league level, but plays a very good left defensively and teases with his potential at times. Player Salary: 22mill (Ellsbury contract)

CF: Aaron Hicks. The amazing 2017 breakout for hicks ends up being completely legit and the Yankees lock him up long term on a cheap contract at the end of the year. Hicks remains underrated in 2020, but is still an elite CF with a good bat. Player Salary 14 mill.

RF: Aaron Judge. 2017 becomes a bit of a fluke season and he has a sophomore slump season in 2018... But in 2019 he cuts his k% from 31 down to 25 and has a monster season hitting 50 bombs. I expect much of the same in 2020. Player Salary: 13-18 mill arb2 or bridge contract.

SP1: Shohei Otani bursts onto the MLB scene in a big way in 2019. The Japanese Babe Ruth cements himself as a top of the rotation player, while also crushing 20 bombs as the Yankees DH on day he isn't pitching. Player Salary: 25-30 mill free agent.

SP2: Micheal Pineda. Signed long term on a reasonable contract, pineda is a decent #2 option for the Yankees despite still being volatile and inconsistent. Player Salary: 18-23 mill free agent

SP3: Luis Severino. Much like Pineda, Severino remains tantalizingly talented, but a mix of pitching at Yankee stadium and in the AL east beast causes him to be fairly inconsistent regardless. Player Salary: 10-15mill arb2 or bridge

SP4: Jordan Montgomery remains in the rotation despite not being too hyped as a prospect. His deceptive delivery, and command of various junky pitches makes him a solid pitcher in the bigs and he develops a plus changeup that keeps him there. In 2020 Jordan will be a sub 4era pitcher. Player Salary: 23mill (tanaka is "injured")

SP5: Justus Sheffield. After a cup of coffee in 2018, sheff will go on to win the 2019 sp5 spot ahead of some bigger prospect names in the Yankees system. He will breakout in 2020 and pass Montgomery despite Montgomery having a very solid season as well. Player salary: 500k pre arb

Closer: Chapman remains, holding down the fort in the 9th. The bullpen isn't quite as strong as it once was with the departure of Betances, but the Yankees have a glut of potential replacement arms in the minors. Player Salary: 18 mill free agent

Mentionables: Yankees unfortunately have to cut ties with betances when he becomes a free agent in the off-season before 2020, but the Yankees remain one of the most elite bullpens in the league with help from existing talent on the roster and a glut of young fireballers in the minors. I see James Kaprielian being an elite setup man. OFer Dustin Fowler will be in the mix for the left field job along with Frazier, and will see a lot of time at each OF spot pending injuries in 2020. Blake Rutherford will still be in the minors at this point and might force his way into the plans with some good seasons, but he should be given all the time in the world to develop. Prospect Jorge Mateo will be used as an infield utility player and pinch runner.

Outlook: The Yankees are all in here and setup to win in 2020 and beyond. They make the playoffs in 2017, but take a step back for 2018 and 2019 with the departure of some valued veteran talent (sabathia, headley, gregorious, gardiner). So 2020 is the year they really turn things around again for real and are title contenders. No very interesting trades happen with the Yankees in the next couple years, but in 2021 when the tanaka and Ellsbury contracts come off the books, the Yankees will have enough money to hold on to every player from the championship contending 2020 team. Yankees win in 2020.

Estimated player payroll: 260mill

[Greendaybum5]

Torres will be called up to the big leagues at some point this year. You think it's not until 2020 that he's the full time starter?

[Spencer 555]

I doubt that Philly.

[Nightmarez]

I think Torres is up this year

[Gryph]

Considering Walker / Drury moves I doubt it. They dumped Andujar to AAA this year already, wouldn't be surprised if he goes down as well.

[Nightmarez]

Considering Walker / Drury moves I doubt it. They dumped Andujar to AAA this year already, wouldn't be surprised if he goes down as well.

I'm not talking about in April, but I think we see Torres as a big league regular before September 2019.

[Spencer 555]

I think Torres is up this year

I don't know about the bat for this year. He's a bit overrated imo. I think he gets the September callup treatment this year. The Yankees can afford to give him seasoning.

[Nightmarez]

I initially thought that Mike Trout expired in 2019 which is why I wanted to do the Phillies for 2020, but I decided to do them anyway with a set-up into 2021.

2020 Philadelphia Phillies

Position Players

C: Jorge Alfaro (pre-arb; 500K).

1B: Rhys Hoskins (pre-arb; 800K? maybe 1st year arb roughly 3.9 mil). Rhys stumbles out the gate in 2018, but finds himself as a more consistent slugger in 2019 and establishes himself as a .265/35-40 type slugger by the end of 2020. Carlos Santana (20.8 Mil) served as a solid piece for two years, and still serves a role in 2020, but far more talented and athletic players in the Phillies OF start to push Santana out of the line-up altogether. Plus, with his expiring money and the team set on Free Agency, Santana is a piece being phased out while Rhys takes over at First Base in 2020. I do believe Santana gets some situational play however. The strength of this line-up is, primarily, right handed so having Santana batting Switch will help offset the lack of left handed power in the line-up.

2B: Scott Kingery (pre-arb; 500K). Kingery establishes himself as a decent hitter in limited action in 2018 before becoming either the team's full time 2B or a rotational Zobrist type player in 2019. For simplicity I have him as the full time 2B. A .270+ hitter who can threaten 20/20 in the middle infield.

SS: JP Crawford (pre-arb; 500K). As a prospect, Crawford has experienced a bit of a fall from grace. The bat may just not be that good, but for my future Phillies, JP Crawford is the projected 7-8 hitter who has an excellent glove at Shortstop. Projecting a .240 BA with little power but a good walk rate that also helps make the batting stats stomach-able, alongside again that great glove.

3B: So I don't like Maikel Franco, and aside from Kingery whom I already have at 2B there's no obvious in house option here. I thought about going with a potential Free Agent, like having them get someone like Moose or Donaldson next year, but I went with a bit more of a creative take. Entering his first year of arbitration, the always poor A's and the always dealing Billy Beane send Matt Chapman to the Phillies in exchange for prospects and cash. Chapman is a decent hitter who doesn't hit for a great average, but he provides power and he shores up a plus-infield defense with JP Crawford. Chapman will earn 2.7 million in his first year of arb.

OF: Mickey Moniak (pre-arb), Odubel Herrera (7 Mill), Aaron Altherr (2nd year arb, 3.7 mil), Nick Williams (pre-arb), Dylan Cozens (pre-arb), Adam Haseley (pre-arb) --
So I decided to tackle the OF as a whole, and listed a few names, highlighting the ones I thought most likely to be on the roster. Mickey Moniak doesn't crack the opening day roster in 2020, but he's my most likely player out of all the listed names to finish 2020 on the Phillies 25/40 Man Roster. Odubel Herrera is my second most likely, because of the obvious long term commitment they've made to him. I'm not completely sold on Odubel's talents as a hitter though. But he's a solid player with solid defensive skills who's under contract for at least this year and 2021, with options for 2022 and 2023. Altherr's a guy I like and think it'll be easy for the Phillies to keep him around at least until he hits Free Agency at worst as a role player. Haseley is another player who perhaps doesn't make the Phillies opening Day roster in 2020, but drafted as a seemingly high-floor College Bat at #8 Overall in the 2017 draft, Haseley should be a solid and MLB-ready hitter by 2020. The primary alignment will be based around platooning, with Altherr getting a bit phased out v. RHP but getting all the PT v. LHP. Altherr still gets some PT over Moniak and Haseley because of being the relative veteran and them being young players. Also keep in mind the idea is we're adding Mike Trout to the equation next year.

Alternates are Nick Williams, who is solid, but I don't like the plate discipline and think if the Phillies were to trade any of the above pieces, Williams would be the most likely. I like Dylan Cozens and think he could be a situational 1B/OF who plays primarily against just RHP. Not the greatest player, but every player pre-arb is practically free for 3 years, so I could see the Phillies bringing up Cozens any time in the next couple years as a cheap power LH player to start v. RHP.

Starting Rotation:

SP1: Jake Arrieta (20 Mil) -- Arrieta may have not gotten quite the lettuce he was expecting, Arrieta is still a borderline SP1 who has been both healthy and maintained a solid level of success, albeit much less success than his peak. He keeps himself healthy and will still be an asset as an Opening Day starter in 2020. One important note, the Phillies front-loaded Arrieta to go after other players. 30/25/20 the first three years of this deal. That's worth noting for an actual non-hypothetical projection of the team. Another fact worth noting about the deal, there are points where both Jake and Philly can exit. In this scenario, they both feel the contract is mutually beneficial (which I actually think is somewhat reasonable, but he is a Boras client), and Jake lives out all 5 years of the Philly contract.

SP2: Aaron Nola -- A pitcher I absolutely love, Nola has had some health issues. These health issues allow the Phillies to take a chance at getting a talented potential SP1 at a bargain, signing him prior to the 2019 season to a 5 year, 43.5 Mill contract with escalators. This is a somewhat similar timeline to the Kluber extension, which was 5/38.5, but with Nola's first year being his first Arbitration year (real money) and Kluber's being his last pre-Arb year, which adjusted his payout from 500K to 1Mil for that season-- but a reasonable extension for both team and player, as Nola gets guaranteed money and the team gets a good player at a bargain. The second year of the contract pays out 7.5 Mill.

SP3: Jimmy Nelson (3rd year arb, 8.8 Mill) -- Another surprise on this list, after missing most of the 2018 season with a shoulder injury, Nelson bounces back to have a good but not great contract year in 2019, with an 8 K/9 and a 3.55 ERA in a tough ball park and division. With one year left of team control, Milwaukee decides that Nelson's question marks and potential price in 2021 make him a tradable piece, and Philly swoops in with an offer of a couple of prospects. Unable to come to a long term agreement, Nelson enters free agency seeking upwards of 100 Million. However, he struggles to find a market for a 9 digit contract and, with the acquisition of Mike Trout in hand, re-signs with the Phillies for a discounted 5 years 80 million covering his age 31 through 35 seasons.

SP4: Sixto Sanchez (pre-arb) -- A 19 YO hot shot in the Phillies organization, Sixto has the name and the big league fastball to believe that he can reach the bigs as a potential impact pitcher in 2020.

SP5: Jerad Eickhoff (2nd year arb, 5.5 Mil) -- Eickhoff may be nothing special to write home about, but a solid pitcher with a solid curveball, Eickhoff will be 29 years old at this time in 2020, and he'll still have two years of team control left. A solid SP5.

Closer: Hector Neris is the potentially obvious answer here, but since the relief pitchers change the most in baseball, I"m going to go with a current starter in the Phillies organization that is struggling and that I think could make an excellent super-reliever, and that's Vincent Velasquez. He may be entering arbitration by this point, but woudnt' be more than 1-2 million.

Payroll:
Santana 20.8 Mill
Arrieta 20.0 Mill
Nelson 8.8 Mill
Nola 7.5 Mill
Herrera 7 Mill
Eickhoff 5.5 Mill
Hoskins 3.9 Mill*
Altherr 3.7 Mill
Chapman 2.7 Mill
Velasquez 1.3 Mill

Base Payroll: 80.2 Million, which is still pretty low for a potential big market team.

Potential year end line-up combinations

v. RHP:
1. Moniak
2. Haseley
3. Hoskins
4. Santana
5. Chapman
6. Kingery
7. Crawford
8. Alfaro

v. LHP
1. Moniak
2. Kingery
3. Hoskins
4. Chapman
5. Haseley
6. Altherr
7. Crawford
8. Alfaro

*I'm not sure on the Service time for Hoskins and how that'll work. To be conservative I took 2020 as his first arbitration year and not his last pre-arb year.

This moves us into...

Phase 2: Mike Trout, 2021, and a WS Ring

Trout, after spending nearly a decade playing on the West Coast and for a team that couldn't quite put together a playoff run (though I love what Eppler's doing right now), Trout moves back to the east coast, signing a 10 Year, 375 Million dollar contract to join the Phillies. While the price is steep, the player is elite, and the books are made well enough that it shoudln't be a problem at all to add it to the mix, especially with Santana coming off the books.

Obviously this displaces a lot of talent in the outfield, with Moniak and Haseley the former first round picks getting the majority of the work in Center and Right while Trout moves over to Left for the Phillies. Odubel, still making 10 Million, is the primary fourth-OF. Altherr is moved.

In the infield, Chapman and Hoskins get an arbitration raise, and Crawford and Kingery (as well as Alfaro) enter arbitration, making the infield increase quite steep. Still, the payroll last year was very low, and Philly can afford high payrolls on a competitive team with Mike Trout.

The Rotation sticks together. Arrieta is a year older but still solid, and with a solid post season career, Nola and Nelson as the main rotational strength behind him, and Vincent Velasquez as an ultra reliever/closer, the Phillies pull out the 2021 WS championship.

2021 Payroll
Trout 37.5 Mill
Arrieta 20.0 Mill
Nelson 13.5 Mill
Herrera 10 Mill
Nola 9.5 Mill
Eickhoff 7.3 Mill
Hoskins 6.6 Mill*
Chapman 4.1 Mill
Velasquez 3.4 Mill
Kingery 3.1 Mill
Crawford 1.9 Mill
Alfaro 1.7 Mill

Base Payroll: 118.6 Mill. A steep single year increase, but an Owner approved one bringing in a super star in Mike Trout. This team has the rotational depth, top end reliever, hitting, and defense to win a World Series.

Base Line-Up:
1. Moniak
2. Haseley / Kingery (Hase v. R, King v. L)
3. Trout
4. Hoskins
5. Haseley / Kingery (Inverse)
6. Chapman
7. Alfaro
8/9. Crawford

I think the Phillies are one of the more fun teams to do.